Microcephaly and Zika virus infection:essentially a risk of microcephaly for infection in the first trimester of around 1%.

The researchers developed a mathematical model with six periods of assumed increased risk of microcephaly given Zika infection to investigate when the risk of infection and the magnitude of the risk were greatest. The period of risk with the best fit was infection in the first trimester of pregnancy. The risk of microcephaly associated with Zika virus infection was 95 (34–191) per 10 000 women infected in the first trimester: essentially a risk of microcephaly for infection in the first trimester of around 1%.

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